Finally, the call has been answered and the international community is listening very carefully and has taken some real interest in Syria’s humanitarian crisis. The United Nation Security Council (hereafter, UNSC), is today in a closed door meeting mulling the very future of Syria. Truth is, we all anticipated this but no one was quite sure when the UNSC would act because as history shows, sometimes they are fast to act and other times they are slow.
The questions on everyone’s mind are: What next for Syria? , For president Assad? Will Mr. Assad succumb to the international and internal pressure within Syria just like his counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt did? Or will he stick it out to the very end until he has to be dragged from the throne? The answers to these questions will determine the future of Syria and inevitably transform Syria from what we know it today and what it was in the past.
The step taken today by the UNSC is long overdue and far too many lives have been lost, in addition to valuable property. Nonetheless, the decision shows serious concern for the plight of Syrians and, I believe, the world looks forward to a workable solution to end the carnage in Syria. The Council will be discussing a resolution supporting the Arab League’s call for political reform which includes the stepping down of President Bashar al-Assad. The Council is not expected to vote until next week.
The decision will not be a simple one for UNSC to make as Russia has already publicly declared its stand on the matter: It will veto any resolution which blatantly calls for President Assad to step down. We are also likely to see the Chinese take the same stand as they also vetoed a previous draft resolution on Syria last year. They have not, so far, done anything to suggest that this time round they will support a resolution against Syria. As a result, we might experience a delay in resolving the Syrian Crisis as the council members pull and tag with each other in order to create a compromise that will be acceptable for all. In which case, if the violence persists, we will turn our gaze towards NATO. This will be a real test for how far the case for Humanitarian Intervention changed. Will countries put aside their national interests and, for the sake of human rights, step in to stop the conflict?
President Assad, I would say, is not in the least about to back away from his throne. As long as Russia is solidly behind him, he has nothing whatsoever to fear. The UNSC will not touch him as long it does not agree on the future on Syria. President Assad will continue to reign terror on his own people as he wishes. NATO might not as easily intervene in Syria without the express authority of UNSC as it did in 1999 to end Kosovo’s ethnic cleansing. Quite frankly, the Euozone economic crisis has dealt a massive blow to the region and not many nations will have the appetite for an intervention. However, there is a chance that NATO just might intervene as a show of its might in spite of the hard economic times.
So yes, it is possible that President Assad will stick it out to the very end when he will have no choice other than to step down. What will take away his choices? Only time can tell for now