With Bated Breath As We Await The Verdict on Syrian Humanitarian Crisis

Finally, the call has been answered and the international community is listening very carefully and has taken some real interest in Syria’s humanitarian crisis. The United Nation Security Council (hereafter, UNSC),  is today in a closed door meeting mulling the very future of Syria. Truth is, we all anticipated this but no one was quite sure when the UNSC would act because as history shows, sometimes they are fast to act and other times they are slow. 
The questions on everyone’s mind are: What next for Syria? , For president Assad? Will Mr. Assad succumb to the international and internal pressure within Syria just like his counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt did? Or will he stick it out to the very end  until he has to be dragged from the throne? The answers to these questions will determine the future of Syria and inevitably transform Syria from what we know it today and what it was in the past. 

The step taken today by the UNSC is long overdue and far too many lives have been lost, in addition to valuable property. Nonetheless, the decision shows serious concern for the plight of Syrians and, I believe, the world looks forward to a workable solution to end the carnage in Syria. The Council will be discussing a resolution supporting the Arab League’s call for political reform which includes the stepping down of President Bashar al-Assad. The Council is not expected to vote until next week.

The decision will not be a simple one for UNSC to make as Russia has already publicly declared its stand on the matter: It will veto any resolution which blatantly calls for President Assad to step down. We are also likely to see the Chinese take the same stand as they also vetoed a previous draft  resolution on Syria last year. They have not, so far, done anything to suggest that this time round they will support a resolution against Syria. As a result, we might experience a delay in resolving the Syrian Crisis as the council members pull and tag with each other in order to create a compromise that will be acceptable for all. In which case, if the violence persists, we will turn our gaze towards NATO. This will be a real test for how far the case for Humanitarian Intervention changed. Will countries put aside their national interests and, for the sake of human rights, step in to stop the conflict? 

President Assad,  I would say, is not in the least about to back away from his throne. As long as Russia is solidly behind him, he has nothing whatsoever to fear. The UNSC will not touch him as long it does not agree on the future on Syria. President Assad will continue to reign terror on his own people as he wishes. NATO might not as easily intervene in Syria without the express authority of UNSC as it did in 1999 to end Kosovo’s ethnic cleansing. Quite frankly, the Euozone economic crisis has dealt a massive blow to the region and not many nations will have the appetite for an intervention. However, there is a chance that NATO just might intervene as a show of its might in spite of the hard economic times.

So yes, it is possible that President Assad will stick it out to the very end when he will have no choice other than to step down. What will take away his choices? Only time can tell for now 

Nigeria: “We would now like to file for a divorce please.”

I have to admit that it’s almost very difficult to decide where to start  when talking about Nigeria. We have seen Nigeria erupt into the international scene almost from a short oblivion. Nigeria has recently been rocked by economic hardship, like most other countries around the world today. Early in the month the government removed fuel subsidies in an effort to reduce government spending but this was followed by mass demonstrations and protests by Nigerians. The government later reversed its decision but the country continues to experience economic hardship as  the cost of living increases. To add oil to the burning flame, the Boko-Haram has been seen to intensify its resolve to install Islamic law in the country and as a result the country has witnessed murders and destruction of property in a large scale towards the end of last year and at the beginning of this year.

The total of these two elements has inadvertently re-surfaced long standing division between the Northern and Southern parts of the country. There have been attacks on the Southerners living in the Northern part of Nigeria and similar attacks against the Northerners living in the South of Nigeria. It is important to note that ‘Nigeria’s 160 million people are roughly equally divided between a mainly Muslim north and a largely Christian and animist south’ (BBC). Here I wish to address questions on whether this very sharp religious division might be at the very heart of the problem in Nigeria and also the reason many are calling for a divorce between the North and the South. And more importantly, is this the solution? Will  it avert a situation, which most are already expressing fear about, similar to the 1967 Biafran civil war?

To answer the first question, Yes. religious divisions have long been a cause of conflict where people sharing the same religious beliefs and views have expressed their desire and needs to live together in one country and, to govern themselves without the intrusion of other people who do not share similar religious views. Politicians all over the world have used this ‘ need’ and ‘desire’ to rally support for themselves and to advance their agendas. In places where religious divisions have been apparent but there lacked ‘need’ and ‘desire’ among the people to live in separate countries where everyone in the country shares the same religion, political leaders have manipulated those divisions and created the ‘need’ and ‘desire’ for secession. Slobodan Milosevic and Hitler are some of the prominent figures extensively relied on religious divisions to advance their selfish agendas. The Boko-Haram, despite not being a political body could easily be seen to rely on religious division in the country. However, with an almost equal number on both sides of the scale, Nigeria is up for a tough one and the government will have to be extremely keen on how it responds to the issue.

The second question, I am afraid, is more complex and does not afford me the luxury of selecting either ‘yes’ or ‘no’. Dividing Nigeria into two seems like a very easy and may be natural solution to the problem. Arguing simply that the people in the South do not enjoy living with the people in the North and vice-versa, dividing the country into two portions couldn’t be a better show of common-sense. However, this poses a great danger of spawning other problematic issues. Economic ones are first in line as, very vital to note, the economy driving resources  are not equally distributed in the country and one part of the country will end up amassing more resources than the other. The probable result will be another conflict, this time round based on economic inequality. Should the two parts however decide to not confront the problem of economic inequality after the division, there will be a humanitarian crisis involving refugees. People from the disadvantaged side will flow to the neighbouring  rich part  in search of better life. The apparent freedom will only but be momentarily enjoyed as life for people on both the North and the South becomes more difficult.

In addition, the assumption that the people in the North do not get along with the people in the South and vice versa may be  an altered logic and hence the ‘need’ to divide the country along religious opinions requires validation via a referendum. Dividing Nigeria will not guarantee aversion of conflict as due to the immense diversity of the country, there are many ethnic groups and there also exists ethnic divisions which could result in calls of division among people of the same religion.

The problem of Nigeria is not one that pertains to itself only. It is, as a matter of fact, an issue of international security. Destabilization in  Nigeria essentially means destabilization in the entire region of Western Africa. This will create a safe haven for extremists and terrorists to train, recruit and plan world wide attacks. The International community should watch the unfolding events in Nigeria keenly and offer whatever assistance will be required to maintain peace and order.